Department of Modelling of Socio-Economic Processes and Structures

Staff Members of the Department:

	Volodymyr Heorhiiovych Sarioglo, Head of the Department of Modelling of Socio-Economic Processes and Structures, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Candidate of Technical Sciences, Professor, Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
	Anna Helaivna Hvelesiani, Leading Research Fellow, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Research Fellow
	Maryna Yuriivna Ohai, Leading Research Fellow, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Research Fellow
	Hanna Ihorivna Tereshchenko, Senior Research Fellow, Candidate of Economic Sciences
	Tetiana Mykolaivna Kotenko, Senior Research Fellow, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Researcher
	Daria Serhiivna Korotkova, Research Fellow, Doctor of Philosophy
	Maksym Volodymyrovych Otkydach, Junior Research Fellow
	Serhii Vasylovych Ivashchenko, Chief Economist
	Anton Volodymyrovych Kuranda, Leading Economist, Postgraduate Student

Main Research Areas of the Department

development of modern theoretical and methodological approaches to the modelling, forecasting, and integration of statistical and economic models at the macro-, meso-, and micro-levels in order to identify the main regularities of socio-economic and demographic processes;
statistical estimation of current socio-economic and socio-demographic indicators at the regional and local levels on the basis of modern methods of mathematical and statistical modelling;
development of methods for the integrated use of data from various sources, including micro-level data, to provide information support for decision-making in the development of social, socio-economic, and demographic policy on the basis of modern methodology for their monitoring and evaluation;
development of methodological foundations for assessing the quality of data from various sources, the quality of information sources, a system of data-quality indicators and methods for their measurement, as well as approaches to ensuring the required level of information-support quality;
development of the methodology of sample surveys of the population and households, enterprises and institutions, territorial communities, and other units;
development of modelling and forecasting tools based on R, Python, and SPSS software packages.

Scientific Results of the Department’s Activities

methodological foundations for the integrated application of macro- and micro-modelling methods in the study of changes in socio-demographic processes and in the development and evaluation of socio-demographic and socio-economic policy; methodological approaches to the integration of macro- and micro-models for the analysis of demographic, social, and socio-economic processes.
principles for the formation and use of information support for microsimulation modelling in Ukraine on the basis of information from various sources and modern methods of data preparation, taking data quality into account;
experimental representative populations and households; methodological approaches to the construction, on the basis of the information support available in Ukraine, of static microsimulation models and to their use in the study of social processes and the development of social policy.
microsimulation models for measuring Ukrainian household income from labour migrants, forecasting household income with due regard to projected macroeconomic indicators and the impact of the financial and economic crisis, and analysing mortality processes, population ageing, marriage patterns, and related processes.
methodological foundations for sample design, the main stages of data processing, and indicator estimation for the system of state household surveys in Ukraine, including surveys of household living conditions, labour force participation, and agricultural activities of rural households. The results have been implemented in the state statistics system of Ukraine in the form of methodological provisions, methodologies, and automated procedures. Some of the results were used in conducting similar surveys by the state statistical authorities of the Republics of Armenia and Moldova with the support of international and non-governmental organisations;
methods for the statistical integration of survey microdata and data at different levels of aggregation in order to increase the reliability of estimates of population-quality indicators and socio-economic indicators;
practical application of small-area estimation methods to refine indicators of poverty, employment, and unemployment in Ukraine.