Demographic Projections

Demographic forecasts are not predictions. They present sets of scenarios based on assumptions regarding the components of population change, each of which is itself subject to uncertainty. None of the scenarios should be regarded as more plausible than the others. Users are encouraged to examine several scenarios when analysing forecast results.

How to Interpret the Forecasts

For example, when calculations are required for pension models, it is advisable to compare a scenario with a younger age structure with a scenario characterised by a high level of population ageing.

It should also not be assumed that the values observed in the nearest years will always remain within the ranges defined by the “Low” and “High” variants. The Institute for Demography and Social Studies (IDSS) regularly carries out new calculations annually, or at least every two years, in order to incorporate the latest available data.

Since 2014, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has not provided population data for the whole territory of Ukraine. We have therefore begun work on estimating the population by indirect methods. A revised population forecast will be published as soon as it becomes available.

Method

Population forecasts for Ukraine are produced using the cohort-component method. Several hypotheses are formulated for each component: fertility, mortality, immigration and emigration.

Fertility and mortality rates applied to the base population generate future births and deaths by cohort, that is, by year of birth. Immigrants and emigrants are also calculated by year of birth. The population at the beginning of each subsequent calendar year is obtained using the demographic balancing equation.

Births and immigrants are added to the base population, while deaths and emigrants are subtracted according to year of birth.

Hypotheses and Scenarios

The hypotheses are generally defined as “Medium”, “High” and “Low” for each component. Forecast scenarios may combine different configurations of component hypotheses. For some purposes, additional hypotheses are also used, including a “constant” variant, in which all components remain unchanged at the level of the latest available year, and a “zero migration” variant, which assumes no migration.

Base Population

For forecasts produced up to 2014, the base population was derived from post-censal estimates provided by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine as of 1 January. These estimates, disaggregated by age from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or older, and by sex, were based on the 2001 Census and officially registered demographic events: births, deaths and migration.

Since 2014, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has not provided population data for the whole territory of Ukraine.

Starting from 2015, the base population has relied on the relevant estimates prepared by IDSS for Ukraine and is used for forecasts for the whole country in order to maintain consistent time series.

Level of Detail

Each demographic forecast scenario is developed by sex and single-year age groups for every calendar year up to the relevant forecast horizon.